Real-Time MTG Arena Win Rate Probability Calculator

Download the App

See the App in Action

Watch the app dynamically calculate win probability based on the current board state in MTG Arena:

How It Works

This app uses machine learning, trained on 17lands data, to predict the probability of winning a match based on the board state. Here’s how it operates:

• Detailed Logs: Ensure that MTG Arena has detailed logs turned on.
• Log Reading: The app reads the log file and activates when a new game is found.
• Dynamic Updates: As the board state changes, win probability is recalculated and displayed in real-time.

The graph below tracks win probability snapshots throughout the game, providing a clear picture of the game’s progression:

Machine Learning Model

The model powering this app was trained on millions of games from 17lands’ publicly available data. Key features include:

• Game state metrics: Cards in hand, lands in play, creatures on the battlefield, and more.
• Win/Loss outcomes: Used as the target variable for prediction.
• Dynamic board evaluation: Adjusts predictions based on changes in game state.

Technical Details

Here are the technical requirements and setup instructions for running the app:

• Platform: Windows
• Setup: Download the app as a .zip file and unzip it. Run the .exe file to start.
• Automation: The app will automatically detect the log file path for MTG Arena. Make sure detailed logs are turned on in the game.
• Privacy: The app only accesses the log file path and does not connect to the internet.
• Windows Security Warning: When running the .exe file, Windows may display a warning that the file is "untrustworthy." To proceed, click More Info and then Run Anyway.
• Support: Feel free to email jwrightzz1234@gmail.com with any comments or questions.

Example log entry showing the app’s activation:

{"state": "GAME_FOUND", "timestamp": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z"}